មាសបានតស៊ូក្នុងរយៈពេលប៉ុន្មានថ្ងៃថ្មីៗនេះធៀបនឹងប្រាក់អឺរ៉ូ ហើយសូម្បីតែធនាគារកណ្តាលអ៊ឺរ៉ុបបានកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់ក៏មិនបានផ្តល់សន្ទុះកើនឡើងថ្មីសម្រាប់លោហៈដ៏មានតម្លៃនោះដែរ។ដូចដែលបានរំពឹងទុក ធនាគារកណ្តាលអឺរ៉ុបបានកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់ចំនួន25bpsកាលពីម្សិលមិញនេះបើយ៉ោងតាម របាយការណ៍គោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុចុងក្រោយរបស់ធនាគារកណ្តាលសហភាពអ៊ឺរ៉ុប។អត្រាការប្រាក់លើកន្លែងដាក់ប្រាក់ ប្រតិបត្តិការផ្តល់ហិរញ្ញប្បទានសំខាន់ៗ និងកន្លែងផ្តល់កម្ចីរឹមនឹងធ្លាក់ចុះមកត្រឹម 2.50%, 2.65% និង 2.90%ចាប់ពីថ្ងៃទី 12 ខែមីនា។ទីផ្សារមាសមិនមានប្រតិកម្មល្អចំពោះការសម្រេចចិត្តគោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុចុងក្រោយនេះទេ ដោយសារវាកំពុងជួបប្រទះការខាតបង់នៅថ្ងៃទីប្រាំមួយជាប់ៗគ្នា។អឺរ៉ុបត្រូវបង្ខំចិត្តបង្កើនការគាំទ្ររបស់ខ្លួនចំពោះអ៊ុយក្រែន ខណៈដែលអាមេរិកបានដើរថយក្រោយដែលខ្លួនផ្តោតលើគោលនយោបាយក្នុងស្រុកបន្ថែមវិញ។នៅក្នុងសេចក្តីថ្លែងការណ៍គោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុរបស់ធនាគារកណ្តាលសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកការព្យាករណ៍សេដ្ឋកិច្ចដែលបានធ្វើបច្ចុប្បន្នភាពបង្ហាញថាធនាគារកណ្តាលមើលឃើញថាកំណើនធ្លាក់ចុះ 0.9% នៅឆ្នាំនេះ។កំណើនត្រូវបានគេរំពឹងថានឹងស្ទុះងើបឡើងវិញដល់ 1.2% ក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2026 ហើយនៅតែមានស្ថិរភាពក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2027 នៅ 1.3%។ធនាគារកណ្តាលបាននិយាយថា ការកែប្រែការកើនឡើងនៃអតិផរណាសម្រាប់ឆ្នាំ 2025 ឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងពីសក្ដានុពលតម្លៃថាមពលកាន់តែខ្លាំង។ទោះបីជាមាសកំពុងតស៊ូប្រឆាំងនឹងប្រាក់អឺរ៉ូក៏ដោយក៏អ្នកវិភាគជាច្រើនរំពឹងថាលោហៈដ៏មានតម្លៃនឹងអាចបន្តការកើនឡើងបន្ថែមទៀតនៅពេលដែលការចំណាយមានឱនភាពកើនឡើង។ទន្ទឹមនឹងនេះ ការកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់ធនាគារកណ្តាលនឹងបន្តការនាំចូលនឹងកាន់កាប់មាសបន្ថែមទោះបីជាធនាគារកណ្តាលសហភាពអ៊ឺរ៉ុបបានផ្តល់ការណែនាំតិចតួចលើគោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុរបស់ខ្លួនក៏ដោយ អ្នកវិភាគសេដ្ឋកិច្ចរំពឹងថានឹងឃើញការកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់បន្ថែមទៀតនៅឆ្នាំនេះ។ធនាគារកណ្តាលសហភាពអ៊ឺរ៉ុបត្រូវបានគេរំពឹងទុកថានឹងធ្វើការកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់បីដងទៀតក្នុងប៉ុន្មានខែខាងមុខនេះ ដោយសារសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនៅតែធ្លាក់ចុះ ហើយអតិផរណាស្នូលនៅតែបន្តធ្លាក់ចុះ។ប៉ុន្តែឥឡូវនេះយើងគិតថាអត្រាប្រាក់បញ្ញើនឹងធ្លាក់ចុះត្រឹមតែ 2% ជាជាងកម្រិត 1.5% ដែលយើងធ្លាប់បានសន្មត់ពីមុន។
Gold continues to struggle against the euro even as ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points
Gold has struggled in recent days against the euro, and even lower interest rates have not provided any new bullish momentum for the precious metal. As expected, the European Central Bank once again lowered its three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. According to the latest monetary policy statement, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will drop to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90% respectively, effective March 12. The gold market is not reacting well to the latest monetary policy decision, as it is experiencing its sixth day of consecutive losses. Spot gold last traded at €2,680.92 an ounce against the euro, down nearly 1% on the day. Gold against the euro is down 6% from its all-time highs last month. Gold continues to fare better against the U.S. dollar as it tests support at $2,900 an ounce, down 0.60% on the day. According to some analysts, gold is struggling specifically in Europe as investors flock to undervalued equity markets as EU nations increase their defense budget and military spending to support Ukraine in its war against Russia. Europe has been forced to step up its support of Ukraine as the U.S. has stepped back as it focus on more domestic policies. There are expectations that the new spending will boost the economy, which continues to falter. In its monetary policy statement, updated economic projections show the central bank sees growth falling 0.9% this year. Growth is expected to rebound to 1.2% in 2026 and remain relatively steady in 2027 at 1.3%. “The downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part originating from high trade policy uncertainty as well as broader policy uncertainty. Rising real incomes and the gradually fading effects of past rate hikes remain the key drivers underpinning the expected pick-up in demand over time,” the ECB said in its statement. Meanwhile, the central bank sees higher inflation pressure with headline inflation averaging 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. “The upward revision in headline inflation for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics,” the central bank said. Although gold is struggling against the euro, many analysts expect the precious metal to find some support as deficit spending increases. At the same time, lower interest rates reduce gold’s holding costs. Although the ECB has provided little forward guidance on its monetary policy, economists expect to see further rate cuts this year. “We still suspect that the Bank will cut interest rates a few more times in the coming months as the economy remains sluggish and core inflation keeps falling. But we now think the deposit rate will only decline to 2% rather than the 1.5% level that we had previously assumed,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, Deputy Chief Euro-zone Economist at Capital Economics.
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